Probable Upcoming Video Appearances
Bizzlesnaff (a really great editor) is putting together a video after collecting some clips from myself, mahiko, buddhist, unmercey, himself and others. I have no idea what to expect and I was hesitant at first, but I have a lot of hope after seeing this short intro. I’m still not sure what to expect or when it will be out, but it looks promising.
Ming is making another dueling video featuring top rogues against top opponents, and I’ve decided to be a part of it. These opponents are not only great players, but they are going anti rogue specs / gear. I intend to try my absolute best, but at the same time some of these opponents will probably be unbeatable. Despite the fact that I don’t think rogues have much of a shot in duels against many classes when they gem full stam / resil and use anti-rogue racials, it should still be interesting regardless.
Reaction vs. Prediction
Before I start, I’ll warn you that this may be a bit confusing, especially if you aren’t an experienced pvper. I’ll try to clarify things as much as possible.
First let me define what I mean by prediction and reaction in pvp. A long time ago, I used to think that (for example) using vanish to immune a deathcoil or blind was a purely predictive event. Warlocks simply spam deathcoil after a stunlock, so if you vanish just after the stunlock or incapacitate ends and you are out of stealth, you will vanish-immune it. The problem here lies with what happens when a lock figures out that he can deathcoil at a random interval or a rogue trinket–> blinds at a random interval in a stunlock. Instead, playing reactively mean waiting until you see the graphic for said deathcoil or said trinket and responding by hitting vanish. Now that we have an idea of the difference between reaction and prediction in rogue PvP, I’ll continue.
I’m writing this because I watch a lot of rogues PvPing, and a big play style mistake that I see, even amongst skilled and experienced players, is playing predictively in situations where you could instead play reactively. I’m starting to see knowing when to predict and when to react as a big determinant between the skill level and success of rogues (and players in general) at a high level.
Another good example of prediction vs. reaction lies in rogue v rogue duels. It’s a big reason why I have a love hate realtionship with this match up. For example, a rogue can open with cheapshot and then immediately gouge, completely guessing (prediction) because they are used to rogues trinketing cs immediately (especially in this low survivability era of wotlk), and gouge a trinket. This is, in my opinion, really a mistake. It turns the duel into a guessing game rather than the opening rogue having the confidence to react to the trinket and respond (with a vanish, blind, gouge, or fok depending on the rogue they are fighting and what they like to do after trinket).
OK, maybe guessing works for rogue v rogue. But let’s carry this situation to arena, which is in my opinion the practicle application of duels. Are you going to open on a rogue with cs and then gouge? No, prediction is completely worthless. Blind a trinket reactively, however, can be game breaking. This prepares the rogue that is blinded for a funn stunlock. Predictive play just doesn’t work here, because blinding into a cheap shot will probably cost you a game.
Playing reactively when possible is always the way to go, but this goes far beyond rogue v rogue. If you are on a caster, you don’t want to guess if they are faking a cast, you want to wait until they get as late into the cast as possible and kick then to ensure it’s not a fake, and if it is a fake with 0.2 s left then they cost themselves enough time that you mitigate the loss of missing a kick. At the same time, you can react to a faking-caster by kicking right when you see them stop moving, and kicking early enough into the cast that they won’t fake it. Just guessing if the cast is a fake or not isn’t the best thing you can do.
There are other examples. If a mage is sitting in iceblock, are you going to randomly gouge into it to pray they come out right at that time, or instead gouge as you see iceblock fade. When stunlocking an opposing player in arena, and for example you have them in a kidney shot and they still have trinket, you can react to their trinket with a vanish cheap shot. Kick on cooldown against a caster, and they aren’t casting? Wait till they do to use vanish–> garrote so that you can stop their casts and give time for kick to come off cooldown. There are tons of example of where reaction is the right choice.
Now all this being said, prediction is a huge part of rogue PvP. How good you are at predicting really comes down to how well you understand your opponents, their abilities and when they will use them. To use an example from my last video (Arena Vol. IV) in a later 3v3 scene towards the end of the video, a paladin runs toward me early in a fight. I know for a fact Hammer of Justice is off cooldown, and he has no other reason to be running toward me, so when he gets within range I vanish immune the HoJ. Of course it’s impossible to react to an instant HoJ, but using prediction you have a good chance at immuning it.
There are lighter examples of prediction. Shadowstepping an intercept is prediction, if a warrior goes gradually away from you and intercept is off of cooldown, you know they are going to go for it and you can negate it via predictively shadowstepping.
To summarize my point here, there are times when prediction is the right choice. If you can EVER choose to counteract an opponents ability through reaction instead of prediction, you should, because otherwise you might as well be rolling dice or flipping a coin instead of PvPing.
Related posts:
Good article, can be applied to any given situation in whatever you are doing atm, in any game or real life (sports?)situation.
But I think that, looking at the examples with the paladin HoJ’ing and the warrior going to do intercept, aren’t you basically reacting to their behaviour? I mean when he runs away and you “predictively” shadowstep at him, you are in fact just reacting to his “weird” movement. Sorry for stupid comment..
Comment by Neverdown — March 15, 2009 @ 7:35 am
Excellent article, although sometimes reaction is too latency dependent to do much good for me.
Comment by Zieth — March 15, 2009 @ 7:41 am
Looking forward to Bizzlesnaff’s Movie.Looks very Promising becouse of Super amazing Editing.Like in Hollywood ! lol!
Comment by Desolator — March 15, 2009 @ 7:58 am
really good article.
I’m right thinking about it last time – what is better prediction or reaction. but there is no right answer as i think – all things have their right time so it comes with experience.
nice one, Akrios.
keep writing, it’s allways interesting what thinking other and experienced people.
peace, /salute and good luck.
Comment by Kross — March 15, 2009 @ 8:55 am
Good Thoughts.
Comment by Sinborn — March 15, 2009 @ 9:20 am
Hmm, very interesting article.
I usually cs and instantly gouge in rogue duels because most trinket the cs, but this article puts out a good point. It does take a lot of practice but reaction is key rather than predicting.
Great work!
Comment by Evolas — March 15, 2009 @ 10:44 am
Hi dude,
Pretty good article.. normally my playstyle is more predictive than reactive, but it’s just because of my Latency.
How much latency do you normally have? and how much latency should i have to be able to be successful with those ”reactive vanishes”?
Thx, good job and great video btw
Your Trance is amazing!
Comment by Zurge — March 15, 2009 @ 11:16 am
Well said Akiros. Keep making videos because I think they are great!
Comment by A rogue — March 15, 2009 @ 11:33 am
Akrios, lovely.
A fantastic post, keep on going baby
Comment by korni — March 15, 2009 @ 12:49 pm
Well said, but, what is your opinion on Unmercey’s style of playing? How much do you think is prediction and how much do you think is reaction? Most of the gouge trinkets in duels are prediction i think, but it’s still fun to watch.
What would you call this?:
Say you’re doing a rogue v rogue duel and you open. Your opponent doesn’t trinket cheap shot, and he also doesn’t trinket kidney until after your first mutilate following the kidney. But, right after that mutilate you gouge, knowing that he will trinket.
Question…how is Eviscerate X coming along?
Comment by Sarrik — March 15, 2009 @ 1:14 pm
Loved the video, awesome high quality, and your UI is great, going to use it.
Comment by Slilent — March 15, 2009 @ 1:29 pm
nice post
need to know the song in Bizzlesnafs Intro :/
Predection, huh… things like shadowstepping intercepts are ok, but blowing vanishes predicting deathcoils or something… to risky :/
Comment by Dana — March 15, 2009 @ 1:54 pm
As for right now, you, Akrios, are the best predicter/reactor in PvP. When I watched IV, and you vanished the Paladin’s HoJ, my jaw dropped. I mean sure sometime I’ve vanished a random HoJ, but those are rare and really didn’t mean to happen. I think you should make video guides as you take that break from Arena Movies for those rogues that can’t vanish instant casts (me).
Comment by Krus — March 15, 2009 @ 2:42 pm
Haha the intro is like a Jackass the Movie intro, with the song and them all walking along.
Comment by Birdfluu — March 15, 2009 @ 4:19 pm
You are totally right in your article, most rogues predict what the opponent does and I love to play against those rogues.
Did you ever try to open up on another rogue with Garrote? They have just no idea what to do, since they predicted something else.
Comment by Carpedies — March 15, 2009 @ 4:37 pm
Awesome tips man! I would never have thought to use vanish to immune hoj or death coil. I agree with Krus, some video guides with your expert narration would be really cool.
Comment by Bendickson — March 15, 2009 @ 8:27 pm
Your thesis here sounds like the basis of PvP in GW, which I find the WoW player base lacks significantly. Good post, good read.
Comment by Leeloof — March 15, 2009 @ 8:28 pm
Interesting thoughts.
Though I think that this prediction way of fighting in pvp comes with experience and a lot of duels against all classes. And I agree with Leeloof, I come from DAOC where pvp was definitely different and less based on stereotyped reactions in duels but more on reactions during the fights.
I am not an experienced pvper in WoW, therefore I tend to react more than I predict and I came to realize that it can be confusing for the opponent not to react in a stereotyped way.
Comment by Mayhem — March 16, 2009 @ 12:16 am
Great article and awesome tips.
Comment by Xanor — March 16, 2009 @ 4:11 am
My problem is, that its possible to blind the vanish REACTIVELY because of latency, and it just shouldn’t be possible. Thats why vanish is so broken. Thats why Death Knights can death grip my ass out of vanish reactively, and not predictively. Its just ridicoulus. I’ve just tried it, if you react whitin 100-150 ms, when the rogue vanishes, the rogue’s vanish will be on cd, and the rogue is just standing there in blind. Its pure reflex, and it is and obvious bug, vanish immune would be fine, but thats something complete shit. Build strategys around buggy mechanics isn’t really the way to go, if the paladin waits still you vanish and press HoJ reactively, or just clicking that button later, than you think, you are just fucked up, waste a vanish, and standing in a full HoJ.
GIEF WORKING VANISH FFS.
Comment by Zzzzz — March 16, 2009 @ 5:54 am
Akrios,
I was wondering if you can please post some of your keybinds. I’m having a hard time working with my current keybinds right now. And even though they are pretty clean in terms of accessibility, i know they could be better
Would appreciate it
Thanks!.
Comment by Impailor — March 16, 2009 @ 6:00 am
hey fuck you, man
Comment by buddhist — March 16, 2009 @ 7:06 am
wow I just realized I might actually be an okay rogue. I only use reaction >_< do you have a list of predictions I should be aware of?
Oh other than that, I cannot wait to see the video.
Gonna be epic win for sure ^_^
Comment by Galeren — March 16, 2009 @ 9:57 am
I’m glad to see that finally i’m not alone to think that gouging or blinding randomly is fucking bad in rvr. I see a huge number of rogues that are doing that. Butwhen i try to explain to them that reacting is better than press shoting, they just tell me to L2P or something like that. Haha.
Sorry for bad english
Comment by Gemlas — March 16, 2009 @ 1:29 pm
Well even though prediction does help a lot I just prefer imaging the best option I would do if were my ennemy in every situation and encounter to be ready to counter it to the best I can with my own capacitys if possible not cooldowns but I won’t do anything randomly or on simple hope of maybe anticipating a trinket or whatever.
It’s probably not the best way to go but at least I’m not gouging/blinding/vanish+cs trinkets partly by luck…
Oh and for the video *fanboy mod activated*
…must see moarrrr… o_o
Anyway interesting reading, as usual thanks.
Comment by Gravedigger — March 16, 2009 @ 3:51 pm
Great, great post akrios; i have been watching ure videos ever since thunderfury days and let me do tell u every time i see one of ure upcoming videos im surprised at how better uve become at reaction time and combat awareness and with this article u summarized how much experience u have with rogues and pvp in general really one of the greatest rogues of this time.
Comment by Adrián — March 16, 2009 @ 10:00 pm
Bizzlesnaff is an amazing editor. I enjoyed his TBC vids and the video he did for his hunter friend champjones.
Comment by Sequels — March 16, 2009 @ 11:03 pm
So the other day, I was dueling this rogue and He opened on me, I waited out the CS and he blinded me. I knew If I would have trinketed the blind it would be gg for me because of the follow up KS. I lost the duel but the power of the opener is so game breaking really.
Comment by Grid — March 17, 2009 @ 6:36 am
Can you beat Neilyo now ?
Comment by Doomight — March 17, 2009 @ 6:58 am
Grid> Trinket the blind, blind him, wait for him to trinket and vanish, prep, vanish, game is yours
Comment by Døxler — March 17, 2009 @ 7:09 pm
My experience with PvP was pretty limited until I decided to sign up for the Arena tournament this past month. I have learned alot from it, from Akrios and his movies and ALL the posts on this site. However, despite all the tactics and strats, I still believe that I have alot to learn. However, the openers for rogue v. rogue is truly a match breaker imo. I often find myself opening on a rogue with a sap, and watching for the full 10sec, I am waiting to see if the rogue will blow a trinket, which means…new rogue. If he does, it is reaction time and I hit a sap again and with the Diminished returns, I await it out again and CS+ Lay the smackdown+KS+Lay smackdown+Vanish and CS again=Done. It oftens comes upon the one who was able to get in the first stun to get ahead, however, as I have experienced before, it is not always the circumstance.
However, I have found, against much more experienced players, that someone like me, opening with a sap, is more of a scare tactic than an actual intentional opener. It takes a bit of patience on the recipient of the sap to see if they can call the bluff. Trying to call the bluff is a good move, and reaction time is absolutely necessary to outlast the next set of moves.
Akrios’ vision of understanding a call and understanding the in’s and out’s of a class makes knowing the fights much easier. Hence why he can take 2-3 guys on at a time, (Eviscerate 9 <3). As said by Sun Tzu “If you know yourself and know the enemy, you need not fear the outcome of a hundred battles.”
Thank you for the help Akrios, look for me on the Arena realms, it really would be an honor to duel you.
Comment by Faeyna (Kul Tiras-Arena 1) — March 18, 2009 @ 12:41 am
Interesting article. I must say I agree 100% when you say “Playing reactively when possible is always the way to go”. There would be a few observations I would do however.
For playing reactively, the first thing is to know how fast you can react, and that is based on two variables:
a – your brain reflex time
b – your usual gameplay latency
Reflex:
Most people response time is between 0.5 and 0.4 seconds. People with a response time of 0.2 seconds and below can consider themselves to be very fast. You can take a test on http://vegasociety.com/brain/reflex.html to test your speed.
Latency:
Latency however can become a deciding factor on your gameplay style. Imagine the following scenario: two human rogues dueling pass in front of each other while stealthed. Say rogue “A” has a latency of 90ms and a reflex time of 400ms and rogue “B” has a latency of 200ms and a reflex time of 200ms. Even though rogue “B” response time is far superior, rogue “A” is the one landing the opener on that fight, since his response will get first to the server.
The second, is knowing well your opponents as said on the post and other comments (no need to extend here).
I’m currently living outside the US, so I have to play predictively more often then not.
~N
Comment by Nimoy (Arthas) — March 18, 2009 @ 9:45 am
Even though u are right about reactive playstyle being superior to predictive u must take into account that ur latency means a lot in this matter. I have vanished many deathcoils in melee range against warlocks in arenas simply cause i was expecting it like u said. IF on the other hand i had waited to see dc effect first and then (reactively) vanish i would have eaten the dc right in the face^^. the same can’t be said about pom-pyro (old story now)which back in vanilla days i used to counter by listening to the sound presence of mind makes. What i wanna say is that when a spell has no sound/flashy effect (like deathcoil) predictively countering it is better than reactively unless u have awsome latency. In my case at least i’m 100% sure there is no way i will reactively vanish a dc from melee range. I can bait the warlock to cast it(by sprinting away starting -0.5sec before ks ends)and thus see the dc and vanish but no experienced top lock will fall for that especialy if he has seen u do it before:D
Comment by prayforheals — March 18, 2009 @ 9:25 pm
It sounds nice but we cant forget about the LAGG! If u venish when u see ur opponent using trinket u probably get blinded + u burned a venish CD, u cant really help it i think.
Comment by kadar — March 20, 2009 @ 7:54 pm
You said reaction > Prediction in duels and arena, but the big question is, what can you do to IMPROVE your reactions? Watching rogue videos just doesn’t cut it for some and when trying it out in arena, it can lead to bad things happening.
Comment by Nom nom — March 21, 2009 @ 3:20 pm
Very nice read thanks.
It’s kinda humorous to see people stating reaction vs prediction while they go hand in hand.
If for instance you know because of experience and knowledge of the game your opponent will very probably do 1 out of two things, that’s prediction that’s prediction. And you can choose to counteract one of the two. (That’s dice rolling) If instead you can identify which of the two actions he’s doing and react accordingly, that’s reaction.
Reaction and prediction can’t exist without each other.
Comment by Orcstar — March 22, 2009 @ 6:20 pm
Gotta say man, this is absolutely true for people with <50 ping, however, I play a rogue and have 200-300 ping, reaction – it’s next to impossible for most things, hell, kicking fakes is the most retarded thing to try and do successfully, haha…
I’m thinking that rogue is the wrong class for an Australian…
But what to reroll. haha.
Comment by Retrofied — March 24, 2009 @ 6:19 am
[...] I’ve seen discussed recently by both Aldriana (of Elitist Jerks / theorycrafting fame) and Akrios (of roguerogue.com) is the idea of skill, and our relationship with it. I define skill as the ability of a player to [...]
Pingback by Encrypted Text: Rogue defenses need to lose the RNG - World of Warcrack — March 25, 2009 @ 10:01 am
[...] seen discussed recently by both Aldriana (of Elitist Jerks / theorycrafting fame) and Akrios (of roguerogue.com) is the idea of skill, and our relationship with it. I define skill as the ability of a player to [...]
Pingback by Encrypted Text: Rogue defenses need to lose the RNG | The WoW Gold Mine — March 25, 2009 @ 5:40 pm
Well as u said when you KNOW that a certain cd is off cd u can use these things but…How do u know? As ive seen in the game HON Vs Sk Gaming Asia they have an addon for this, Any idea whats it called and where I can get it? Would help alot
Comment by Cortex — March 27, 2009 @ 9:33 am
[...] talked about prediction in the past and Unmercy is someone who kind of plays with it big time. The thing is that he does it [...]
Pingback by Unmercy 6: Encore, Lessons from Making a Guild, 3 | Rogue-Rogue — April 15, 2009 @ 10:51 pm
Totally right dude
Comment by Unknown — April 18, 2009 @ 1:04 pm
I See What Most you are Saying And I can look at it and Say Yes this this and this are True But in the End They Both coexist You can not have one Without having the other to React is to Predict
All was be Two Steps ahead of the Mage You Kidney shot They Blink What do you do Three Things you can do One Being The most Know Blink,COS,Sprint,Vanish,Deadly Throw.
In Rogue V Rogue
Predict and React
I know i have gotten a lot of Rogues Off guard With a really easy Macro I saw in one of the Video’s Here All it is a
Other Rogue vanish Instead of having a Hide and Seek match as soon as they Do It FoK vanish cheap shot they are not going anywhere And there Vanish is on cool down. I have Had Rogues Ask me WTF was that i just did to them and i will explan that i made It just for That type of Problem You know when i Rogue get low We Vanish and back Out so i Do not let them do it.
I have Done a lot of the Reflex Tests What is everyone getting on them and Be Honest
I em sitting at a o.25
I have Only lost to One Rogue So far in All the arena i have done It May Just Be He was Better Skilled it may be He did Something I Could not Predict Or I was So confused on what he did i could not React Its All about using Both Equally To make The best out of them
Comment by YourShadow — May 1, 2009 @ 12:39 am
uhm after what i saw akrios and neilyo where very 50/50 tho akrios’s opener’s were much moore exciting
Comment by Buggz — May 7, 2009 @ 12:17 pm
I think prediction is the way to start learning, though. If you try to learn by pure reaction, chances are you’ll never be good. I think it’s best to learn by practice and prediction at the start, then once you get good to start easing into reaction.
Comment by Nochtis — May 16, 2009 @ 4:28 pm
I see you vanishing blind / death coil a lot, this must be another example of predicting? since there is no shance you cant react to a death coil if you stand beside the warlock cuz then you won’t even see it?
Comment by Random — June 20, 2009 @ 2:56 pm
I’ve noticed that when vsing dub deeps comps with rogues, that a predictive cs–>gouge works quite well as most rogues will try to trinket to avoid as much damage. With rogue healer comps its prolly just best to apply bleeds and restealth. But what do I know I’m only and 1800 rogue.
Comment by martyrize — July 6, 2009 @ 1:12 pm
lol i done that to a ‘pro‘ rogue who kept bragging he could insta-trinket cheap shot……….he was just trinketting when ppl unstealthed lol…….second time i didnt even open i just unstealthed and he trinkettied and vanished lol ‘‘pro’’
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Comment by Why wow player — October 26, 2009 @ 10:57 pm
Good article , I prefer to set up an attack by making an unpredicted mistake and then setting them up with something timed. It gets good results to look like a nube.
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